Tuesday, December 30, 2008

IBP extension

International Business Park at Jurong East will be extended southwards to increase 20% or 125,000 sq.ft. It is part of the Jurong Gateway and plans to complete in 2011 to 2012. A new road leading to AYE and Boon Lay Way will be added. More upgrading and new residential properties may also be expected along Sungei Ulu Pandan.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Exec condo

From today's the Sunday Times:

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Quiet Property Market

However, the median subletting rents of HDB flat still increases in the 3rd quarter: $1300 ~ $1700 for 3-rm and $1600 ~ $2000 for 4-rm flat. Cheaper flats are found in Jurong West, Woodlands and Sengkang; while the most expensive ones are in Queenstown, Clementi and Toa Payoh.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Staycation

Being a tourist in own country for a day or a weekend is called 'staycation'.

Changi Boardwalk: stretching 2.6km, the scenic coastal boardwalk views the sea and Ubin.
Ketam Mt. Bike Park at Pulau Ubin: it's a 45ha park opened this year for both competitive mountain bikers and leisure riders.
Ubin Lodge is located next to Ubin jetty with all units facing the sea and Changi coastline. Rates start from $100 (6220-8623).
Aloha Changi is of colonial-style bungalows are chalets, which are great for a quiet stay with friends or family over the weekend. Rates start from $100 (6545-2343).

Guided walks at parks and nature reserves: Pasir Ris Mangrove tour ($4, 6465-3305), Lower Peirce Reservoir Park - Bt. Timah Nature Reserve - MacRitchie tour (free, 6554-5127), HortPark tour (free, 6471-5601), Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserve walk (free, 6794-1401), Pulau Ubin Sensory Trail ($60 for a group of up to 15, 6542-4108). A good eatery place opposite HortPark is worth mentioning: Gillman Village Little Bali.

Trek and explore: Southern Ridges (9km over the rolling hills from Mt. Faber park to West Coast park), HSBC Treetop Walk at MacRitchie Reservoir (25m above ground ideal for bird-watchers), Labrador Park (explore World War II bunkers).

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Greenspan was wrong

Stocks were savaged for another week. It was one of the worse days on global markets since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last month. The STI plunged to 1600, its lowest close since Sept 2003.
Former Fed chief Greenspan admits he was wrong for his putting too much faith in the self-correcting power of free markets and for his failing to anticipate the self-destructive power of wanton mortgage lending.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Financial jitters

The market action came after a two-day pounding on fears of more troubles for corporate earnings as the impact of the financial crisis hits the economy.

The tech-dominated Nasdaq composite closed down 0.73% at 1,604, while the broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 1.26% at 908. Stock markets plunged in Asia: Tokyo's Nikkei index fell 2.46% while STI declined by 4.14% to 1745. The worst hit in Asia was Seoul, which ended down 7.4%.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Crisis glossary

Securitisation: If a bank lends money to a company or an individual, it is called a loan. The bank is at risk if the borrower defaults and cannot service the loan. So the bank 'securitises' the loans and packages them into investments, selling them to third-party investors. The bank has now taken the risk of the loans off its books and no longer needs to set aside capital to protect against their default so it's free to grant even more dodgy loans.

Mortgage-backed securities: They're repackaged home loans that third-party investors bought. Investors are willing to buy mortgage-backed securities because it's backed by thousands of loans so the risk of default is much lower and it pays a healthy interest return.

Credit default swaps (CDS): They're essentially 'insurance policies' that protect the default of something or someone. Buyers of CDS make regular payments to a swap seller, in exchange for a payout when there is a default.
The CDS market plays a key starring role in the story of the current financial crisis. Banks in the US that granted dodgy mortgages securitised the loans and sold them to investment banks like Lehman Brothers to get the loans off their books, the latter would then buy CDS from an insurer like AIG to neutralise the risk.
The CDS market was unregulated, so AIG didn't have to put up any capital to back the swaps. It is why AIG and other swap issuers continued to issue them freely until they became a US$60 trillion market. As housing prices collapsed in the US, sellers like AIG had to make big payout they could not afford.

Collateralised debt obligations (CDO): They're like mortgage-backed securities but instead of mortgages they are mode up of different types of assets incl. commercial property and bonds.

Leveraging / Gearing: it measures the degree to which a company or an investor is using borrowed money.
Leveraging plays an important role in the financial crisis because many investment banks borrowed heavily - using their share as collateral - to invest in risky high-return securities. This is highly profitable as long as the market was rising. Instead of stumping up $100 to buy something, they would put up $10 and borrow the money. If they made money from that $100, they return on the actual money wages ($10) would be much higher.

Libor / Sibor: The London (Singapore) Interbank Overnight Rate. They refer to the rates that banks charge when they lend money to one another. Libor & Sibor have soared as banks become more cautious about lending money to one another and want a premium for doing so. But Sibor has eased in recent weeks (now 3-m Sibor is at 1.5521% and 12-m at 1.7708%).

Treasuries: These are government bonds issued by the US Treasury Dept., incl. treasury bills, treasury notes and treasury bonds. They are seen as the ultimate safe-haven investment as backed by the mighty US government.

Derivatives: These are a class of instruments that derive their value from another underlying asset, such as a company stock, allowing investors to profit from movements in the stock price without actually owning the stock. Investors can buy derivatives to take bets on anything from interest rates to the weather.

Short-selling: This is when an investor sells a financial instrument like a stock that he doesn't own, in the hope of buying it back later at a lower price and earning a profit. Short-sellers often borrow stock to make good their trades.Short-sellers have exacerbated the financial crisis because their selling actions have pushed stock prices down very sharply.

Hedge funds: They're private, barely regulated investment funds that manage assets using high-risk, high-return strategies. They typically borrow money ("leverage") to eke out bigger returns and are often blamed for indiscriminate short-selling.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Financial Turmoil

Each day brings a surprise...

and here is the exchange rate over 1-year period:

Sunday, May 11, 2008

9KM Scenic Walk

The two recently-added pedestrian bridges, Henderson Waves and Alexandra Arch, complete a 9KM chain of greenery in the Southern Ridges, which consist primarily of three hill parks (Mt. Faber, Telok Blangah Hill & Kent Ridge Parks).

Henderson Waves, of 36m height and 274m across Henderson Rd, is Singapore's highest pedestrian bridge.

The Southern Ridges now boast the Forest Walk, a 1.3KM long elevated walkway at Telok Blangah Hill Park.

With 20 theme gardens, HortPark is South-east Asia's first one-stop gardening and lifestyle hub. The 23ha park has been open since Dec last year.


On paper, it would take about 2.5 hrs to complete the 9KM trail from HarbourFront MRT station to West Coast Park. But realistically, one probably needs about 5 hrs considering stops for drink and views. First-timers are advised to stick to the more scenic walk, from Marang Trail to HortPark.Bring along water, snacks and insect repellent. Parking lots may be limited (try Kent Ridge carpark B).

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Condos at West Coast

I've been monitoring a few condos at West Coast area. Their transacted prices had risen by 15%~20% in the first 3 quarters last year; however they seem stabilized or even slightly declined since 4Q'2007.

The dotted line in the above figure means there are too few transactions in that month to draw a reliable curve.


Botannia by CDL & Capitaland was launched in May last year and now there are still 30~40 units on sale at the developer's showflat. It fetched the median psf of $864 in Oct '07, or 27% rise from its launch price. But the sales have slowed down since then: the URA data shows that only 3 and 8 units were sold in Nov & Dec, with the median price $855 & $839 respectively.

Right next to it are Carabelle by Sim Lian, Infiniti by Frasers Centrepoint and Monterey Park by CDL. The below assembles the cluster of condos over there (not to-scale).

Clementiwood (by Frasers Centrepoint) is a low-rise development at the further east of the above condo cluster and near NUS. The 99-yrs LH project was launched in early 1Q '2007 and was the benchmark for the property boom in the westward extension of the city area.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Stocks fall sharply

Global stock markets continue to plunge, extending yesterday's steep decline.

STI lost another 141 points by 13:30pm, followed yesterday's fall of 187 points (or nearly 6%), now at only 2776 down from its recent peak of 3876 on 11 Oct. last year.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Insurance for retirement

Longevity risk and retirement planning have been a hot topic since PM Lee Hsien Loong indicated in his NDP Rally Speech 2007 that the government intends to introduce some kind of mandatory annuity out of one's CPF min sum.

CPF savings currently earn 2.5% & 4% interest rate on ordinary account (OA) and Special, Medisave & Retirement accounts (SMRA). The first $60K earn an extra interest of 1% so the min CPF interest rates for 2008 & 2009 are 3.5% (OA) and 5% (SMRA) for most people. Setting aside the CPF min sum fully in cash, one will receive a monthly payment of $790 from his age 62 for about 20 years.

However, the available products on the market disappoint me, most using the 5.25% yield ONLY for illustration -- this figure is as good as nothing because it is by no means the company's commitment (not even its best estimate) but rather a cap yield imposed by MAS regulation. Buying annuity products from participating insurance company with the CPF min sum usually gets the insured much less than the CPF's $790 though it extends the monthly payment for life. But how many think that they will live significantly longer than age 82?

NTUC Income offers two relevant products:

Growth Plan is a single premium endowment plan with the initial investment and declared bonuses fully guaranteed at maturity. It can be purchased with cash, CPF or SRS.

  • Projected yield* ranges 4.04% ~ 4.48% for the term of 10 to 30 years
  • 125% of the premium together with bonus is payable in one lump sum upon death or total / permanent disability
  • the sum assured is doubled if the death or disability is a direct result of bodily injury by accidents
*note: the actual returns on 10-yr term were 4.92% (1996-2006), 4.98% (1995-2005), 5.23% (1994-2004).

Classic Annuity ensures a regular and growing income stream for life. Investing the CPF min. sum ($99,600 as of 7/2007) at age 55 guarantees $523 plus a non-guaranteed bonus component of $633 ~ $1247 at age 62 & 87 respectively (assuming 2.75%).

Tan Kin Lian's blog on this subject is interesting and worth reading...

Great Eastern offers the following relevant products:

Endowment 5 is a five-year premium plan with policy term 10~20 years.

  • Projected yields range from 3.29% for 10-yr term to 4.05% for 20-yr term.
  • Optional protection against 30 major illnesses is available at extra premium.

Choice Investment is a single premium endowment plan.

  • Projected annual returns range from 2.9% (6-yr) to 4.34% (25-yr)
  • It attaches a 125% of the one-time savings amount as guaranteed life insurance.

Lifetime Income Plan is its annuity product. Investing the same CPF min. sum guarantees $535 monthly starting from age 62. In exchange of the bonus payout, it includes the death benefit being a lump sum of $104,948 minus what one has withdrew monthly.

The Canadian-based provider, Manulife Financial, recently launches a variable annuity product in Singapore, Secure Retirement Plan (US$).

  • Over up to 10 yrs, the Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefit (GWB) increases from 100% to 150% of the subscription (i.e. 5% pa)
  • Potential step-up on every 5th policy anniversary up to age 80 if the market value of the portfolio has risen & higher than GWB.
  • By electing Income For Life at age 65 or older, a 5% pa of the GWB is receivable for life.
note: although the insured enjoys a guaranteed and relatively handsome 5% return for the initial 10 yrs, he may lose any investment yield over the subsequent 20 yrs while his drawing annually. The step-up mechanism makes up at certain extends but the chances are limited to every 5th policy anniversary. The insured will unlikely benefit unless the market steadily goes up over the period.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Taxi fare hikes

The recent taxi fare hikes raised the price of a cab ride by 5~35%. The Straits Times yesterday gave a 10KM taxi fare comparison table, together with the equivalent number of McDonald's Big Macs.

The fare in Singapore is U$6.2 (non-peak) / U$8.35 (peak), still lower than that in Taipei (U$9.20) and Hong Kong (U$10.20) but higher or much higher than fares in other Asia cities e.g. Beijing (U$3.40), Bangkok (U$2.00), Jakarta (U$2.10~2.65) or Kuala Lumpur (U$4.00~6.00).

The revised taxi fare is summarized below (for major companies e.g. Comfort, CityCab, SMRT and Yellow-top):

  • Flagdown fare $2.80 for <=1 KM
  • Booking fee $2.50~5.20 depending on if advanced or busy hours
  • Meter fare $0.20 per 385m / 330m (>10KM) or 45sec. waiting
  • Peak hours (0700-0930 & 1700-2000) 35% of metered fare
  • Late nights (0000-0559) 50% of metered fare
  • Other surcharge $1 ~ $5 for holiday, CBD or locations e.g. airport

Although cab companies are optimistic that the recent fare changes will raise drivers' incomes, cabbies complain that passengers are disappearing during morning and evening rush hours due to the 35% surcharge. A story on today's newspaper said that some cabbies waive the peak hour surcharge attempting to attract more passengers. They display "Not 35% surcharge for peak hours" or yell out "Taxi, taxi, no surcharge" while touting at bus stops.

Prime Taxis (Tel: 6778 0808) has not raised the taxi fare so far. Their peak hour surcharge remains at $2 for now.